60% chance of OTA on Tuesday

  1. tobes
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    tobes , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Except the nightly will wipe your data.

  2. minial1990
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    minial1990 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    I meant in general. Once you get on the nightly you can ota through nightlies without losing data.

    Update: Cyanogen tweeted as well, the ota is real!

  3. Deactivated User
    Apr 14, 2015

    TeamValor91 likes this.
  4. BigBurt
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    BigBurt , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Yep downloading

  5. BLIX
    Gingerbread Apr 14, 2015

    BLIX , Apr 14, 2015 :
    sigh... trolling. Are you from the same mystical group that got the OTA yesterday? Not buying it.

    Face the facts, the OTA aint here. And amen, I can't wait to see the death of those stupid parrot posts.

  6. Teresa loizos
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

    Teresa loizos , Apr 14, 2015 :
    You need more weed as of today to see the parrots :p

  7. tobes
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

  8. TowerParty
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    meatandy likes this.
  9. FlipJumpman
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

    Attached Files:

  10. meatandy
    Oreo Apr 14, 2015

  11. meatandy
    Oreo Apr 14, 2015

    FlipJumpman likes this.
  12. dakotagrvtt50
    Cupcake Apr 14, 2015

  13. Teresa loizos
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

  14. votazap
    Jelly Bean Apr 14, 2015

  15. sicilian0
    Gingerbread Apr 14, 2015

    BigBurt likes this.
  16. BigBurt
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    BigBurt , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Its real. Using lollipop now. Trying to figure out the differences

  17. ahighfield
    KitKat Apr 14, 2015

    ahighfield , Apr 14, 2015 :
    This is only academic now, but your assumption on 15% and 10% is wrong by your own words as that was a Sunday position from Carl. Those numbers should be adjusted also, otherwise only way to look at it is from the Sunday perspective, ie 90% for tues. It should not be 60/40 from today but much more skewed to tues versus Wed than that...otherwise you are saying it is 75%, then 60%, then 100%...very strange for something that should linearly increase in probability over time....and was demonstrated on a cumulative basis, that relationship should continue imho

    @AndyPober I am with you on this...

  18. minial1990
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    minial1990 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    I'm going to take one more shot at clarifying the math. I know it's moot considering the update is out but for others who are interested. Your assumptions that the probabilities add is a fallacy somewhat similar to the idea of having a 100% chance of winning a prize by buying 5 raffle tickets with a 1 in 5 chance to win. I could give a break down of the actual odds of that if you're interested and give a breakdown of the different macrostates (never winning, winning once, winning twice, etc). Sorry, this is the physicist in me talking.

    For this scenario, let's do a break down of what could happen and the statistics that follow.

    Day 1: day 1 = 0.75, day 2 = 0.15, day 3 = 0.1
    I'm in decimal form because it's easier to understand the math in my opinion. Covering all the options means everything should add up to 1 or 100%. At the end of day 1, there are 2 possibilities, the update happens (reality) or it doesn't happen (fantasy, thank God!). In scenario 1 (reality), the game is over. It 100% came out on day 1, so there's a 0% chance updates BEGIN on day 2 or 3. This scenario had a 0.75 chance of happening.
    Scenario 1: day 1 = 1.00, day 2 = 0, day 3 = 0 (0.75 chance to happen)
    Scenario 2: day 1 = 0, day 2 = 0.60, day 3 = 0.40 (0.25 chance to happen) (Notice that the ratio of day 2:day 3 remains constant)

    The probabilities of both these scenarios are normalized to a particular outcome. If we multiply both scenarios by their respective probabilities we should return the original day 1 probability
    day 1 = 1.00x0.75 + 0x0.25 = 0.75
    day 2 = 0x0.75 + 0.60x0.25 = 0.15
    day 3 = 0x0.75 + 0.40x0.25 = 0.1

    One final point of clarification, one reason why this doesn't seem intuitive is that these are based on a certain condition. In this case the 1/4 chance they missed the Monday update. There's the classic stats problem (referenced in the movie 21) that's a good example. I'll modify it to make the point clearer. Imagine you're playing a modified version of deal or no deal. There are 100 briefcases, 1 has $1M the rest have a penny. The host of the show knows what briefcase is the winner. You pick a random briefcase. The host then opens 98 briefcases all revealed to be empty. The host then gives you a choice to stick with your briefcase or trade with the remaining briefcase. What would you do? The correct answer is swap briefcases. When you first picked a case there was a 99% chance you picked the wrong one. There was however, no way the host was going to reveal the winner, so there is now a 99% the case you didn't pick is a winner but still a 1% chance you got insanely lucky.

    Why did I do this long rant? I'm still waiting for the OTA to reach me :(

    tobes and ahighfield like this.
  19. azibdawi
    Froyo Apr 14, 2015

    azibdawi , Apr 14, 2015 :
    I don't even know why I'm so excited about this.... Loserrrrrrr (L with hand on forehead)

  20. ahighfield
    KitKat Apr 14, 2015

    ahighfield , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Thanks, I appreciate it, really, and understand fully where you are coming from...let's just leave it at that then! Probabilities always drove me a bit crazy anyway!

    Yes, where is that update?!!!

    tobes likes this.