10
60% chance of OTA on Tuesday

  1. tobes
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    tobes , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Except the nightly will wipe your data.
     

    #61
  2. minial1990
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    minial1990 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    I meant in general. Once you get on the nightly you can ota through nightlies without losing data.

    Update: Cyanogen tweeted as well, the ota is real!
     

    #62
  3. Deactivated User
    Apr 14, 2015


    #63
    TeamValor91 likes this.
  4. BigBurt
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    BigBurt , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Yep downloading
     

    #64
  5. BLIX
    Gingerbread Apr 14, 2015

    BLIX , Apr 14, 2015 :
    sigh... trolling. Are you from the same mystical group that got the OTA yesterday? Not buying it.

    Face the facts, the OTA aint here. And amen, I can't wait to see the death of those stupid parrot posts.
     

    #65
  6. Teresa loizos
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

    Teresa loizos , Apr 14, 2015 :
    You need more weed as of today to see the parrots :p
     

    #66
  7. tobes
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015


    #67
  8. TowerParty
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015


    #68
    meatandy likes this.
  9. FlipJumpman
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

    Attached Files:


    #69
  10. meatandy
    Oreo Apr 14, 2015


    #70
  11. meatandy
    Oreo Apr 14, 2015


    #71
    FlipJumpman likes this.
  12. dakotagrvtt50
    Cupcake Apr 14, 2015


    #72
  13. Teresa loizos
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

  14. votazap
    Jelly Bean Apr 14, 2015


    #74
  15. sicilian0
    Gingerbread Apr 14, 2015


    #75
    BigBurt likes this.
  16. BigBurt
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    BigBurt , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Its real. Using lollipop now. Trying to figure out the differences
     

    #76
  17. ahighfield
    KitKat Apr 14, 2015

    ahighfield , Apr 14, 2015 :
    This is only academic now, but your assumption on 15% and 10% is wrong by your own words as that was a Sunday position from Carl. Those numbers should be adjusted also, otherwise only way to look at it is from the Sunday perspective, ie 90% for tues. It should not be 60/40 from today but much more skewed to tues versus Wed than that...otherwise you are saying it is 75%, then 60%, then 100%...very strange for something that should linearly increase in probability over time....and was demonstrated on a cumulative basis, that relationship should continue imho

    @AndyPober I am with you on this...
     

    #77
  18. minial1990
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    minial1990 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    I'm going to take one more shot at clarifying the math. I know it's moot considering the update is out but for others who are interested. Your assumptions that the probabilities add is a fallacy somewhat similar to the idea of having a 100% chance of winning a prize by buying 5 raffle tickets with a 1 in 5 chance to win. I could give a break down of the actual odds of that if you're interested and give a breakdown of the different macrostates (never winning, winning once, winning twice, etc). Sorry, this is the physicist in me talking.

    For this scenario, let's do a break down of what could happen and the statistics that follow.

    Day 1: day 1 = 0.75, day 2 = 0.15, day 3 = 0.1
    I'm in decimal form because it's easier to understand the math in my opinion. Covering all the options means everything should add up to 1 or 100%. At the end of day 1, there are 2 possibilities, the update happens (reality) or it doesn't happen (fantasy, thank God!). In scenario 1 (reality), the game is over. It 100% came out on day 1, so there's a 0% chance updates BEGIN on day 2 or 3. This scenario had a 0.75 chance of happening.
    Scenario 1: day 1 = 1.00, day 2 = 0, day 3 = 0 (0.75 chance to happen)
    Scenario 2: day 1 = 0, day 2 = 0.60, day 3 = 0.40 (0.25 chance to happen) (Notice that the ratio of day 2:day 3 remains constant)

    The probabilities of both these scenarios are normalized to a particular outcome. If we multiply both scenarios by their respective probabilities we should return the original day 1 probability
    day 1 = 1.00x0.75 + 0x0.25 = 0.75
    day 2 = 0x0.75 + 0.60x0.25 = 0.15
    day 3 = 0x0.75 + 0.40x0.25 = 0.1

    One final point of clarification, one reason why this doesn't seem intuitive is that these are based on a certain condition. In this case the 1/4 chance they missed the Monday update. There's the classic stats problem (referenced in the movie 21) that's a good example. I'll modify it to make the point clearer. Imagine you're playing a modified version of deal or no deal. There are 100 briefcases, 1 has $1M the rest have a penny. The host of the show knows what briefcase is the winner. You pick a random briefcase. The host then opens 98 briefcases all revealed to be empty. The host then gives you a choice to stick with your briefcase or trade with the remaining briefcase. What would you do? The correct answer is swap briefcases. When you first picked a case there was a 99% chance you picked the wrong one. There was however, no way the host was going to reveal the winner, so there is now a 99% the case you didn't pick is a winner but still a 1% chance you got insanely lucky.

    Why did I do this long rant? I'm still waiting for the OTA to reach me :(
     

    #78
    tobes and ahighfield like this.
  19. azibdawi
    Froyo Apr 14, 2015

    azibdawi , Apr 14, 2015 :
    I don't even know why I'm so excited about this.... Loserrrrrrr (L with hand on forehead)
     

    #79
  20. ahighfield
    KitKat Apr 14, 2015

    ahighfield , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Thanks, I appreciate it, really, and understand fully where you are coming from...let's just leave it at that then! Probabilities always drove me a bit crazy anyway!

    Yes, where is that update?!!!
     

    #80
    tobes likes this.