Check your Position in reservation list by a single click

  1. kikimypet
    Froyo Aug 25, 2015

    kikimypet , Aug 25, 2015 :

    Please Comment with your waiting number to get Estimates

    The real logic behind invites - A try to find out ETA

    Q " I am at xxxxxx position what is the waiting period to get the invite ?" 1

    Ans -
    here are some things one should consider .
    1) Company has sold around 1.2 mil opo 1
    2) Company has around 1.5 mil early inventory ( as they announced 30-50 fold launch inventory )
    3) The users of OPO 1 are priority .
    4) The forum members and other active supporters will be preferred over people in reservation list alone ( though I am wondering how are they gonna automate it )

    Now lets see the scenario (Assuming company gears up and starts actual send-outs once and for all actively)
    If Company has started sending out invites at the rate of 20k per day it will take 2 and half months to clearout the initial stock . And lets say company is planning to sale total 5 mil phones ( which is a fair number looking at past sales and current responce) in next 15 months (this is usual cycle time for a flagship - although opo 1 could be bought without invites from apr 2015) then it will increase its invite sending rate to around 100000 per day and more after the initial stock gets over and new inventory builds up .
    Now to guess total number of potential customers
    1) Past opo 1 owners --> 500k
    2) Actual number of registered users wanting to buy from the registration list --> 500k-800k
    This adds up to around 1.2 mil .
    That means out of 1.2 mil non transferrable invites received by past users 500k will be used exclusevely and leading to expiration of remaining 700k invites - but mind you, this will happen in the course of one - one and half month roughly at the rate of 25k to 30k invites daily . And as per my estimates half of that i.e 10k to 12 k expired invites will be alloted to reserved candidates automatically .
    Also past users will get 2-3 invites for their friends and families - I think only those who have bought opo 2 in this round will get preference . so around 1mil this kind of invites , out of this , lets assume 50% are expired , these expired invites will be replaced with new and passed to reserved candidates side by side that will open new 10k per day for registered wannables .
    So summing up all above things here is what we can expect :

    1) Invites for all old users anytime in one monts from launch -i.e till sept 15 ( please adjust date according to the edit 2) almost all past users will get invites
    2) Wannables from only registered list , if registration stops around 6m users (so that the rank stays stable) will get at the rate of 20k-22k invites per day for initial 1-1 and half month clearing about 1 mil ranks .
    So now if you are around 1-1.5 mil in the reservation list you can expect your invite in less than 1 month approx ( refer edit 2 ) . So to roughly calculate the ETA for invites - devide your rank by 20 k and get a vague idea .

    edit 1 : this was expected to be happening like above but unfortunately its is not happening soon - due to some delays , may be company can throw some light on it .
    edit 2 : tweet from founder Carl Pei on 27-08-2015 . As per the tweet
    above estimates should work from sept 8-9 .[​IMG]

    p.s 1.This is an unsintific estimate without considering the contests ,bulk invite giveaways and flash sales . Also business constraints will fluctuate the rollouts .
    p.s 2 - Moderators please remove this if you think this post is against the rules
    p.s 3 - As per the delayes mentioned here by Carl ,we might have to wait to see actual momentum .

    Q . How can I check my rank in reservation list ?
    Ans :

    Here is the simple trick to check your reservation list status
    Find your "confirm your email" mail and click on confirm link it will take you to the page with your current status .

    You can bookmark it and get your status by just a click .

    or simply just replace "k o l i d" with "kid"

    eg https://oneplus.net/invites?k o l i d=Xxxxxx
    https://oneplus.net/invites?k i d=Xxxxxx
    (remove spaces)

    A question from some people .

    Q. Why the position is changing?? 2
    Ans :

    Because more people are referring to their friends to sign up , successful registrations by other people using your link improve your position .

    If you bump up your position by let's say 30000 after one sign up that means 29000 above you have lost their position by+1.

    As there are 1000s if not more people constantly referring and improving positions your position will go down if you sit idle .

    Ofcourse if Oneplus starts to send invites in bulk to the reserved members then your position will improve and you will get invite once you come into the slot .

    Right now as I said only around top 4000 have immediate chance ( this doesn't mean that these people will get invites simultaneously , but they will get them as per unused invites get available , also this number will increase gradually as the stock accumelates )

    so you just convience your friends to register using your link and keep improving the rank until you reach to the top .

    30 successful sign ups with your reference can take you from million to few thousand .

    footnote : This thread post is compilation of my comments(1,2) in the forum .​
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2015

  2. QDP202
    Eclair Aug 25, 2015

    QDP202 , Aug 25, 2015 :
    I assume its within the rules since this is the address I got in the confirmation email :)

    This will save me a load of time, thanks!

  3. Gamm86
    Jelly Bean Aug 25, 2015

  4. kikimypet
    Froyo Aug 25, 2015

    kikimypet , Aug 25, 2015 :
    Yes sure it saves the time and furstration . Thanks

  5. kikimypet
    Froyo Aug 25, 2015

  6. Gamm86
    Jelly Bean Aug 25, 2015

    Gamm86 , Aug 25, 2015 :

    I wanted to point out that your post is useless as eveyone that has signed up for the list already knows that. Why? Because it's mentioned in the confirmation mail itself...OBVIOUSLY.

    kikimypet, gellyfish and harikishan8 like this.
  7. kikimypet
    Froyo Aug 25, 2015

  8. kikimypet
    Froyo Aug 25, 2015

    kikimypet , Aug 25, 2015 :
    I think you haven't understood the purpose of the post . It is for those who constantly check for their position by filling up the email and selecting the captcha all the time .
    It is the shortcut . So your Sarcasm was indeed not the Sarcasm but your ignorance ..

  9. kikimypet
    Froyo Aug 25, 2015

    kikimypet , Aug 25, 2015 :
    and as you have said it is ofcourse mentioned in the mail but many of them forget about that ..

  10. apelann
    Jelly Bean Aug 25, 2015

    apelann , Aug 25, 2015 :
    do not panic you will get one when you r old and grey,invite list is random

    kikimypet likes this.
  11. MDMonden
    Honeycomb Aug 25, 2015

    MDMonden , Aug 25, 2015 :
    Really no point in checking your position constantly... As far as I can see invites are rolling out pretty random.

  12. Mashox
    Cupcake Aug 25, 2015

    Mashox , Aug 25, 2015 :
    Damn, I think it's over for me ^^'
    "You are in position 1,918,558 / 4,235,221"

    curly12002uk and harikishan8 like this.
  13. Gamm86
    Jelly Bean Aug 25, 2015

    Gamm86 , Aug 25, 2015 :
    There's no need for the captcha. Just click the link from your mail twice.
    The second tab that opens will show you your position...

  14. kikimypet
    Froyo Aug 25, 2015

    kikimypet , Aug 25, 2015 :
    Thank you for your insights , the post is not about something that was not already there but about things people often miss to notice . Say there are around 700k members in the forum , there are atleast 50% i.e 300k who didn't notice this thing , if they did notice it then the app which displays the current ranking wouldn't have been this famous or talked about .

    Also the app is only available for android so what about the people using other operating systems..?
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2015

  15. kikimypet
    Froyo Aug 25, 2015

    kikimypet , Aug 25, 2015 :

    Not at all over for you if company plans to sale its 50 times more inventory at the launch as they said earlier ..

  16. kikimypet
    Froyo Aug 25, 2015

    kikimypet , Aug 25, 2015 :
    Might be random but you have to be in the top slot to get selected randomly

  17. Deactivated User
    Aug 25, 2015

    kikimypet likes this.
  18. kikimypet
    Froyo Aug 25, 2015

    Last edited: Aug 26, 2015

  19. gellyfish
    Donut Aug 25, 2015

    gellyfish , Aug 25, 2015 :
    Try to invite a few friends and you will be inmediately like 80000th or so

    kikimypet likes this.
  20. apelann
    Jelly Bean Aug 25, 2015

    apelann , Aug 25, 2015 :
    keep dreaming