5
CM12 15% likelihood today?

?

CM12 Rollout?

  1. Tuesday 14th

    45 vote(s)
    21.1%
  2. Wednesday 15th

    17 vote(s)
    8.0%
  3. End of the week

    19 vote(s)
    8.9%
  4. Next week

    31 vote(s)
    14.6%
  5. Never

    30 vote(s)
    14.1%
  6. Parrot!

    46 vote(s)
    21.6%
  7. Potato!

    25 vote(s)
    11.7%
  1. AndyPober
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    AndyPober , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Based on a statement made by YU. About as reliable as statements made by OP. Only statements from Cyanogen are binding.
     

    #41
    bakerbarber likes this.
  2. ahighfield
    KitKat Apr 14, 2015

    ahighfield , Apr 14, 2015 :
    think he messed up his probabilities. the probability should INCREASE each day that passes, not decreases. He is giving the incremental increase in probability, not the actual probability. After yesterday's lack of any OTA rollout start, it is not 15% today, but 90% and apparently 100% by Wed. I would have to vote Wed at this point...
     

    #42
  3. Niels_Andersen
    KitKat Apr 14, 2015

    Niels_Andersen , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Fu** YU?
     

    #43
    boggogo likes this.
  4. minial1990
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    minial1990 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    thanks Obama!
     

    #44
  5. leyo1022
    Gingerbread Apr 14, 2015


    #45
  6. minial1990
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    minial1990 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    I think he meant at that particular instance the likelihood of OTA rollout beginning. Now that the original day is a wash, the new probabilities are 75% 14th and 25% 15th unless there's new information.

    Edit: New probabilities are 60% for April 14 and 40% for April 15 unless Carl updates us with new information.
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2015

    #46
  7. hAiwahn
    Eclair Apr 14, 2015


    #47
    Rollopda and botturgec like this.
  8. Takeosato
    Gingerbread Apr 14, 2015


    #48
    Rollopda likes this.
  9. bakerbarber
    Jelly Bean Apr 14, 2015

    bakerbarber , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Repetition doesn't equate to truth.
     

    #49
  10. lnxpro
    Jelly Bean Apr 14, 2015


    #50
  11. alsukmadi
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

    alsukmadi , Apr 14, 2015 :
    There is thread for CM12 or CM12 update to be more precise. So the moderators are not abusing their power. They only did what they have to do as a moderator.
     

    #51
  12. tobes
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    tobes , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Quick one on conditional probabilities:

    Given that Monday did not happen, and taking Carl's original probabilities at face value (Tuesday 15% and Wednesday 10%), we now have a 60% probability that OTA will roll out today (Tuesday)... =15% ÷ ( 1 - 75% )
     

    #52
  13. ahighfield
    KitKat Apr 14, 2015

    ahighfield , Apr 14, 2015 :
    but that means it was 75% yesterday and still 75% today, nothing has changed. with time probabilities should change unless everything is completely static. the original probability missed out 75% mon, if not on mon, then [15]%, if not tues, then [10]%. Except the 15 and 10 should be 90 and 100. There is new information, it didn't come out Monday is the new info.

    EDIT: If I am wrong, and assumption of probability of release increasing each day that passes is incorrect in OP's backwards world, I might have to change my vote to Never...
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2015

    #53
    bombadier and jeffryj11 like this.
  14. Rollopda
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

    Attached Files:


    #54
  15. zapablast05
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    zapablast05 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Quit provoking them by calling them out like that. If you have an issue with a moderator, send them a PM.
     

    #55
  16. Markh2000
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

    Markh2000 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    I'm sorry but I will call out the mod. I'm not trying to provoke he/she but simply making a point.

    There are hundreds of useless threads about all kinds of crap that are left open, my previous thread I kept updated on the latest developments and post relevant news about an update which we have all been waiting a very long time for as well as give people a chance to talk about said update with there opionons, predictions etc.
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2015

    #56
    Kapitan Nemo likes this.
  17. avsroy
    Gingerbread Apr 14, 2015


    #57
  18. gmo8492
    Lollipop Apr 14, 2015


    #58
  19. Airsmith
    Gingerbread Apr 14, 2015

    Airsmith , Apr 14, 2015 :
    I still think next week. They seem to be holding on to it for some reason. Shame they won't spill the beans.
     

    #59
    Markh2000 likes this.
  20. Markh2000
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

    Markh2000 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Those threads are old and didn't update Carls twitter statuses or reddit status to reflect the ETA on CM12 hence my reason for sharing the news in my previous thread.
     

    #60