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CM12 15% likelihood today? Apr 14, 2015

AndyPober , Apr 14, 2015 :

Based on a statement made by YU. About as reliable as statements made by OP. Only statements from Cyanogen are binding.

 

ahighfield , Apr 14, 2015 :

think he messed up his probabilities. the probability should INCREASE each day that passes, not decreases. He is giving the incremental increase in probability, not the actual probability. After yesterday's lack of any OTA rollout start, it is not 15% today, but 90% and apparently 100% by Wed. I would have to vote Wed at this point...

 

Niels_Andersen , Apr 14, 2015 :

Fu** YU?

 

minial1990 , Apr 14, 2015 :

thanks Obama!

 

leyo1022 , Apr 14, 2015 :

Poor OP!!! You #NeverSettle to disappoint us.

 

minial1990 , Apr 14, 2015 :

I think he meant at that particular instance the likelihood of OTA rollout beginning. Now that the original day is a wash, the new probabilities are 75% 14th and 25% 15th unless there's new information.

Edit: New probabilities are 60% for April 14 and 40% for April 15 unless Carl updates us with new information.

 

hAiwahn , Apr 14, 2015 :

Takeosato , Apr 14, 2015 :

Parrot for 2020 Republican!

 

bakerbarber , Apr 14, 2015 :

Repetition doesn't equate to truth.

 

lnxpro , Apr 14, 2015 :

Still Monday for me

And my vote is potato

 

alsukmadi , Apr 14, 2015 :

There is thread for CM12 or CM12 update to be more precise. So the moderators are not abusing their power. They only did what they have to do as a moderator.

 

tobes , Apr 14, 2015 :

Quick one on conditional probabilities:

Given that Monday did not happen, and taking Carl's original probabilities at face value (Tuesday 15% and Wednesday 10%), we now have a 60% probability that OTA will roll out today (Tuesday)... =15% ÷ ( 1 - 75% )

 

ahighfield , Apr 14, 2015 :

but that means it was 75% yesterday and still 75% today, nothing has changed. with time probabilities should change unless everything is completely static. the original probability missed out 75% mon, if not on mon, then [15]%, if not tues, then [10]%. Except the 15 and 10 should be 90 and 100. There is new information, it didn't come out Monday is the new info.

EDIT: If I am wrong, and assumption of probability of release increasing each day that passes is incorrect in OP's backwards world, I might have to change my vote to Never...

 

Rollopda , Apr 14, 2015 :

Martin Garrix is one of us!
He loves parrots!

 

zapablast05 , Apr 14, 2015 :

Quit provoking them by calling them out like that. If you have an issue with a moderator, send them a PM.

 

Markh2000 , Apr 14, 2015 :

I'm sorry but I will call out the mod. I'm not trying to provoke he/she but simply making a point.

There are hundreds of useless threads about all kinds of crap that are left open, my previous thread I kept updated on the latest developments and post relevant news about an update which we have all been waiting a very long time for as well as give people a chance to talk about said update with there opionons, predictions etc.

 

avsroy , Apr 14, 2015 :

It is here!! Downloading the update now - in India.

 

gmo8492 , Apr 14, 2015 :

I really don't care anymore.
.

 

Airsmith , Apr 14, 2015 :

I still think next week. They seem to be holding on to it for some reason. Shame they won't spill the beans.

 

Markh2000 , Apr 14, 2015 :

Those threads are old and didn't update Carls twitter statuses or reddit status to reflect the ETA on CM12 hence my reason for sharing the news in my previous thread.