5
CM12 15% likelihood today?

?

CM12 Rollout?

  1. Tuesday 14th

    45 vote(s)
    21.1%
  2. Wednesday 15th

    17 vote(s)
    8.0%
  3. End of the week

    19 vote(s)
    8.9%
  4. Next week

    31 vote(s)
    14.6%
  5. Never

    30 vote(s)
    14.1%
  6. Parrot!

    46 vote(s)
    21.6%
  7. Potato!

    25 vote(s)
    11.7%
  1. minial1990
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    minial1990 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    it's not backwards, it's just statistics. Here's an example: Let's say we have 100 envelopes and in one of them it says the rollout can begin. Now, for whatever reason, they can pick 75 envelopes today, 15 the next day and 10 the following day. Based on this scenario the probability of picking the right envelope on day 1 is 75%, day 2 is 15% and day 3 is 10%. Now, we can further extrapolate that the probability of picking the right envelope before day 3 would be the probability of day 1 + day 2 = 90% and of course having the envelope before day 4 would be 100%.

    Here's where things change. Day 1 is over and we know that the winning envelope isn't in the first 75 envelopes. That means it's in one of the remaining 25 envelopes. It's illogical to apply yesterday's statistics to today. Day 2 now has a 15/25 chance of picking the right envelope with day 3 having a 10/25. So my original numbers were off. There's actually a 60% chance of picking the envelope on Day 2 and a 40% chance of drawing it on Day 3. If day 2 ends without drawing the winning envelope, then we know for certain the winning envelope is in one of the remaining 10 envelopes, which will be drawn on day 3 so there's a 100% chance of the getting the winning envelope.

    Hopefully this clears up the discrepancy and confusion
     

    #61
    ahighfield and Markh2000 like this.
  2. Markh2000
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015


    #62
  3. Kapitan Nemo
    Lollipop Apr 14, 2015

    Kapitan Nemo , Apr 14, 2015 :
    That's the most likely. I'm glad you pointed that up.
     

    #63
  4. AndyPober
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    AndyPober , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Monday (means any time before Tuesday) 75%
    Tuesday (means any time before Wednesday) 75% + 15% = 90%
    Wednesday (means any time before Thursday) 75% + 15% + 10% = 100%

    Assume 24 hour days at Pacific Daylight Time - Cyanogen offices.
     

    #64
  5. minial1990
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015

    minial1990 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    That's still based on earlier projections, if the update doesn't come 'today' the odds change. Check my followup post explaining the stats. Although, someone posted a screenshot of the update, which may be fake, but HOPEFULLY isn't
     

    #65
  6. Markh2000
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

    Markh2000 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Screenshot_2015-04-13-20-57-39.png

    Apparently the update has released although it isn't confirmed if this is fake or real but a heads up folks. Will keep things updated. Nothing showing for me yet UK!
     

    #66
  7. EpicSwirly
    Apr 14, 2015

  8. EpicSwirly
    Apr 14, 2015

    EpicSwirly , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Its real check the cyanogen blog.
     

    #68
    Markh2000 likes this.
  9. Deactivated User
    Apr 14, 2015


    #69
    TeamValor91 likes this.
  10. Markh2000
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

    Markh2000 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Don't need to be so rude but yes if the update is rolling out then the thread can be closed.
     

    #70
  11. Markh2000
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

    Markh2000 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Just checked and updates thread. Thanks :)
     

    #71
    Deactivated User likes this.
  12. Markh2000
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015


    #72
  13. avsroy
    Gingerbread Apr 14, 2015

    avsroy , Apr 14, 2015 :
    This is REAL. Am downloading now - in India.
     

    #73
  14. Markh2000
    Honeycomb Apr 14, 2015

    Markh2000 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Let us know how it goes, perhaps some screenshots etc when your done :)
     

    #74
  15. mlane18
    Froyo Apr 14, 2015

    mlane18 , Apr 14, 2015 :
    WTF! Why is India getting update before United States. Phone was released in India months after USA release.
     

    #75
  16. ahighfield
    KitKat Apr 14, 2015

    ahighfield , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Ok, see where you are coming from now, but it still should be the 90% for day 1 + day 2 as that is the only way to look at it, otherwise the original is still wrong, it should be 75%, then 60% and finally 100% per your calculation and based on your assumption of what Carl's numbers meant, which still seems very strange to me...We need Nicholas Taleb to sort this out for us I think ;) !

    Anyway, it's out now...! Thanks for the discussion though and taking the time to write that out!
     

    #76
    Markh2000 likes this.
  17. TowerParty
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015


    #77
    Markh2000 likes this.
  18. doddysal
    Ice Cream Sandwich Apr 14, 2015


    #78
  19. avsroy
    Gingerbread Apr 14, 2015

    avsroy , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Here is the first screen shot...
     

    Attached Files:


    #79
  20. ahighfield
    KitKat Apr 14, 2015

    ahighfield , Apr 14, 2015 :
    Anyway, my final words on this are here...https://forums.oneplus.net/threads/60-chance-of-ota-on-tuesday.296362/page-4#post-10856327... Most importantly, enjoy lollipop!!!
     

    #80